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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0921

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 18:08:11
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 281808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281807
    GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-282000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0921
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...Southern Tennessee...Alabama...Western Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 281807Z - 282000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Wind damage and hail will be possible across parts of
    middle Tennessee, Alabama and western Georgia over the next few
    hours. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the south of the
    current watch later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
    in place across much of the Southeast with surface dewpoints in the
    mid to upper 70s F. As a result, moderate instability is analyzed by
    the RAP across much of southwestern Tennessee, Alabama and
    southwestern Georgia with MLCAPE values estimating in the 2000 to
    3500 J/kg range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates have increased
    markedly over the last few hours with the RAP showing the steepest
    lapse rates in central Alabama. This would be the most likely area
    for a continued severe threat later this afternoon. Wind damage will
    still be possible as the linear MCS moves southward across the
    southern and western part of WW 231. As the line approaches the area
    of maximized low-level lapse rates in Alabama, a new weather watch
    or watch extension will need to be considered.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35428809 35608759 35428683 34928610 34588561 33948521
    33058451 32558368 32008356 31758386 31658534 31578682
    32268778 32978803 34798834 35428809



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