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ACUS11 KWNS 141957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956
ALZ000-MSZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi and southwest through
north central Alabama into the far western FL panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 48...

Valid 141956Z - 142130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes
persists across the remaining part of tornado watch 48. The greatest
short-term damaging wind threat appears to be with portion of the
line moving through central AL. Storms will approach the
eastern-most counties in the WW soon and another row of counties can
be added if needed.

DISCUSSION...Greatest short-term severe threat for damaging wind
appears to be with portion of line moving through central AL. This
segment of the line continues east at 25-30 kt and will approach the
border of the WW soon where some severe threat might persist for
another row of counties farther east. However, surface data show a
substantial reduction in dewpoints over east central through
northeast AL, suggesting a more marginal thermodynamic environment
that could promote a weakening trend.

Farther southwest across southwestern AL and southeast MS, the line
is advancing much slower. Some models suggest development of a weak
meso-low over the northwest gulf that will track northeast into
southwest AL along this portion of the boundary this evening. If
this scenario plays out, the far southeast portion of the WW would
remain free of storms until this evening when the line once again
begins to accelerate as the meso-low and associated upper impulse
shift northeast.

..Dial.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 31628782 32368715 33018690 33658665 33818620 33498583
32348634 31238747 30558813 30238865 30548883 31628782



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ACUS11 KWNS 041617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041617
LAZ000-041845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2019

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041617Z - 041845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage and hail threat will continue
across southern Louisiana from late this morning into early this
afternoon. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows the southern edge of an
MCS in southern Louisiana. A warm front is analyzed east to west
along the coast of Louisiana with surface dewpoints along the coast
in the lower to mid 60s F. Temperature-dewpoint spreads along the
coast generally range from less than 1 to around 2 degrees F. For
this reason, instability is weak between the southern edge of the
MCS and the LA coast. In spite of this, the RAP is showing moderate
deep-layer shear in place across southern Louisiana. The New Orleans
WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear of 45-50 kt. This amount of shear
should be enough to help storm organization. For this reason, an
isolated severe threat is expected to continue late this morning
into early afternoon. The more organized multicells that obtain a
bowing structure should have a wind damage and hail threat. Also, a
brief tornado will be possible. Although the severe threat may
increase in far southeast Louisiana, the threat should be maintained
along the warm front across southwestern and southern Louisiana this
afternoon.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30379189 30279311 30029330 29789317 29739285 29629226
29369108 29118994 29058939 29118917 29578913 30028942
30329002 30379189



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