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ACUS11 KWNS 281616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281616
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...Central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281616Z - 281745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A supercell has developed near Grand Rapids, Minnesota.
Additional storms may form and move into the area this afternoon
which may require a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed in north central Minnesota
along a weak front. MUCAPE of 2000 to 2500 J/kg south of this
boundary combined with 45 knots of effective shear will support this
supercell continuing southeast. While this storm is likely elevated,
it may transition to surface based as the boundary layer continues
to warm to the south of the front with RAP forecast MLCAPE values of
2000 J/kg this afternoon. In addition, the 14Z HRRR indicates the
storms currently in the central and eastern Dakotas may grow upscale
and lift northeastward as well as additional storm development
across the area as MLCINH decreases. Considerable uncertainty exists
whether storm coverage will be as prolific as the HRRR indicates, or
if the warming 700 mb temperatures with the advecting EML and rising
heights will inhibit more widespread convection. If storm coverage
increases across this area, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed as expected moderate to strong buoyancy and deep layer
shear of 50 to 55 knots will be more than sufficient for organized
severe weather.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 47549431 47469516 47199635 47129662 46849680 46279670
45799659 45379650 45039622 45159558 45279480 45399400
45559293 45839250 46249231 46739212 47049223 47549431



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