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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0918

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 15:58:43
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 281558
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281557
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0918
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...Southern and Central Iowa...Northern Missouri and
    Far Western Illinois

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

    Valid 281557Z - 281800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat appears
    likely to continue into early afternoon across southern Iowa and
    into northeast Missouri. Weather watch issuance may be needed
    downstream of the WW 230.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front located
    from southwest Iowa extending southeastward into eastern Missouri. A
    severe storm is ongoing in southwest Iowa near the front where
    strong instability (4000-4500 J/kg) is analyzed by the RAP. Due to
    the strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear evident on the
    Des Moines WSR-88D VWP, intensity with the storms should be
    maintained over the next few hours as low-level lapse rates steepen.
    The track of the storm is expected to be located along the
    instability gradient from southern Iowa into northeast Missouri
    where additional weather watch issuance will need to be considered
    as the convection moves toward the southeastern edge of WW 230
    around noon CDT.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42259482 41909523 41519544 41279551 40949523 40049378
    39639289 39229174 39099104 39189065 39429038 39709031
    40259069 41189185 42239342 42259482



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