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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0917

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 15:23:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281523
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281522
    GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-281715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0917
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1022 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...Tennessee...Northern Georgia...Northeast Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 281522Z - 281715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
    the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains late this
    morning. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
    threats. A new weather watch will likely be needed across the
    region.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasistationary
    front located from western Kentucky extending southeastward into
    northern Georgia. Along and south of the boundary, moderate
    instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE values estimated in
    the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. A line of training strong to severe
    thunderstorms is ongoing along the instability gradient from middle
    Tennessee into northern Georgia. The WSR-88D VWP near the AL-TN
    stateline shows 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This combined with
    steepening low-level lapse rates late this morning will be favorable
    for severe storms capable of producing wind damage and isolated
    large hail. A new weather watch will be issued shortly.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36628753 35348492 34808426 34328413 33838419 33498451
    33448499 33688578 33858624 34138677 34848791 35788884
    36538895 36838854 36628753



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