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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0916

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 13:43:43
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 281343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281343
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-281445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0916
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0843 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Missouri...Southern and Western Illinois
    and Western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 281343Z - 281445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across
    parts of the mid Mississippi Valley this morning. Marginally severe
    wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger storms.
    Weather watch issuance does not appear likely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
    front extending from northern Missouri southeastward into western
    Kentucky. Several thunderstorms are ongoing just to the southwest of
    the boundary in a moderately unstable airmass. The RAP is estimating
    MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range from central Missouri southeastward into far western Kentucky. In addition, the latest
    WSR-88D VWP at Paducah has 0-6 km shear at 25 kt. This should be
    enough for marginally severe multicells capable of strong wind gusts
    and hail. However, a capping inversion is likely present across most
    of the mid Mississippi Valley. This will keep any severe threat
    marginal this morning, but we will monitor areas downstream for a
    greater severe threat this afternoon.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37018747 36588832 36458906 36718977 37299057 37869141
    38489229 38919255 39699229 40019188 39799111 39078986
    38678843 38248754 37578725 37018747



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