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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0915

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 28, 2018 12:41:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281240
    NDZ000-SDZ000-281515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0915
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

    Areas affected...southern North Dakota and far northern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 281240Z - 281515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail threat will continue through the
    morning. An increase in wind and tornado threat may occur later this
    morning. The area will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop within a broad zone
    of warm-air advection in the 850-700-millibar layer. Additional
    support for ascent appears to also be coming from a subtle
    short-wave trough moving ejecting out of the broader western United
    States trough. Given most-unstable CAPE values already around 2500
    J/kg across the area and deep-layer shear in excess of 50 knots, the
    background environment will remain conducive for thunderstorm
    maintenance -- including supercells -- within the warm-air advection
    regime and support a hail threat this morning. As diurnal heating
    increases and low-level lapse rates increase, any elevated
    thunderstorm may transition to surface based, increasing the
    potential for strong thunderstorm winds. A tornado threat may also
    evolve with any thunderstorm that becomes surface based, as backed
    surface winds found on the cool side of the residual frontal
    boundary increase low-level helicity.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45640271 46230367 47250298 47649784 46529686 45669825
    45560031 45640271



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