This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1530175968-38885-1629
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 280852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280852
NDZ000-281015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Areas affected...southern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 280852Z - 281015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected given the isolated nature of
the threat.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing within a warm-air
advection regime atop a remnant frontal boundary across southern
North Dakota. These thunderstorms should continue to move east with
time owing to deep westerly flow through the cloud bearing layer.
Deep-layer shear values are on the order of 50 knots and a parcel
source region characterized by most-unstable CAPE values in excess
of 1000 J/kg will support updraft organization and longevity --
including elevated transient supercell-like structures. Despite
mid-level lapse rates across on the order of 5-6 C/km, the degree of instability suggests that isolated large hail will be possible with
the strongest thunderstorm cores.

A watch is currently not anticipated given the relative isolated
nature of the threat.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46740246 47630134 47419692 46059703 46100145 46740246



------------=_1530175968-38885-1629
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530175968-38885-1629--

--- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)