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ACUS11 KWNS 020027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020026
TXZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

Areas affected...Small part of west central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020026Z - 020200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind threat should diminish by
0200z as high-based supercells weaken.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface-based heating and deep mixing
contributed to high-based thunderstorm development along the dryline
from just east of Lubbock to near Midland over the past couple of
hours. MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 35 kt
has supported a couple of persistent supercells that have produced
large hail and severe outflow winds in the deeply mixed and large temperature-dewpoint spread environment. The storms are beginning
to move just east of the caprock to the lower plains, where
convective inhibition increases quickly with eastward extent. Given
the well-developed nature of the supercells and some possibility of
storm mergers/clustering, they may persist for a county or so to the
east. However, cooling surface temperatures and rapid strengthening
of the cap should result in storm weakening/dissipation around 02z.

..Thompson.. 06/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33390138 33910114 33970077 33900056 33530029 33120036
32750056 32220103 31890156 31880187 32110201 32960165
33390138



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