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ACUS11 KWNS 141741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141741
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-141915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...southeast Mississippi through southwest and and
north central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...48...

Valid 141741Z - 141915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47, 48 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a few tornadoes will persist
this afternoon with greatest threat next few hours from southeast MS
through western and north central AL. A severe storm might also
occur just north of the current WW and affect a small part of the
Huntsville county warning area...primarily Cullman county.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with embedded bowing segments and
mesovortices from north central AL through southeast MS and
southeast LA continues east at around 30 kt. VWP data show mostly unidirectional wind profiles, but 0-1 km hodographs and effective
bulk shear remain supportive of organized structures. Some temporary
lowering of dewpoints has occurred in eastern portion of the WW due
in part to mixing as well as advection of dry air to the east. This
along with expansion of cirrus canopy suggest the boundary layer
will probably not destabilize sufficiently to support much deep
convection away from the squall line. Other storms with some
supercell characteristics are developing in proximity to the warm
front over northern AL and may move a county or two north of current
WW.

..Dial.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30418874 30928897 31938852 33328772 33648692 33368596
32358624 31288674 30398736 30418874



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ACUS11 KWNS 040411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040411
OKZ000-TXZ000-040615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019

Areas affected...Western/Central/Northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040411Z - 040615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for hail and isolated strong wind gusts will exist
for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms currently pose an isolated hail
threat across western and central OK. These storms are aided by both
the strengthening low-level jet and increased forcing for ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave. Recent KTLX VAD data show
winds over 40 kt between 1 and 2 km, up from around 30 kt near 00Z.
Water-vapor satellite imagery shows the shortwave trough entering
the TX Panhandle with the leading edge of the stronger ascent now
depicted by increased radar reflectivity.

Current expectation is for the ongoing semi-discrete/cell-in-cluster
storm mode to transition to more of an organized linear mode as the
ascent continues eastward and the low-level jet persists. Given the
stable low-level conditions, this future convective line is expected
to remain elevated. This should limit the threat for strong wind
gusts, although isolated instances of downdrafts penetrating the
stable layer are possible. This limited threat currently leads to
low probability for a watch, but convective trends will be monitored
closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 04/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35629924 36239699 35999607 35149590 34489718 34139924
35079979 35629924



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