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ACUS11 KWNS 020008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020008
NEZ000-SDZ000-020215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

Areas affected...East-central Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 147...

Valid 020008Z - 020215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 147 continues.

SUMMARY...The wind damage and large hail threat is expected to
increase over the next few hours across parts of east-central
Nebraska. A tornado threat may also develop.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through north-central Nebraska with a narrow corridor of maximized
low-level moisture ahead of the front where dewpoints are in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
developing along this corridor where the RAP is showing strong
instability with MLCAPE values in 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, the Hastings, NE WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer
shear which appears representative of most of central Nebraska. This environment will support a threat for large hail and wind damage
with the supercells early this evening. The storms will gradually
move eastward but storm coverage will increase southward over the
next few hours. Evidence of this southward development exists near
McCook, NE where convection has recently initiated.

The instability and shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
may also enable the stronger supercells to produce hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter. The convection will eventually
organize into a linear MCS and move southeastward along the
instability gradient into parts of south-central and southeast
Nebraska later this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur with the
more dominant supercells as low-level shear increases.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42489954 41739959 41309967 40769950 40479900 40239834
40329773 40969767 41949828 42859858 43019867 43029948
42489954



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