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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0612

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 01, 2018 20:57:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012057
    OKZ000-TXZ000-012300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0612
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...TX South Plains...Far
    Western OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 012057Z - 012300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms anticipated with some hail and/or
    strong wind gusts possible.

    DISCUSSION...A few unsuccessful attempts at deep convection have
    been made across the northeast TX Panhandle over the past hour or
    so. Given the warm and dry mid-levels over the region, additional
    attempts at deep convection will likely be needed for enough
    mid-level moistening/cooling to support robust thunderstorm
    development. Persistent convergence along the dryline, as well as
    what appears to be a subtle shortwave trough moving across the
    southern Rockies, is expected to support these needed attempts at
    deep convection with eventual convective initiation anticipated
    during the next hour or so.

    Currently the agitated cu field remains on the dry side of the
    dryline but any more sustained development should move into the more
    moist and moderately unstable airmass east of the dryline. A few
    stronger storms are possible with the potential for some isolated
    hail and/or strong wind gusts. Isolated nature of the anticipated
    severe threat will preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32750188 32800215 33060223 33600215 34060199 35080142
    36360026 36529959 36129945 34760019 33720088 32910162
    32750188



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