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ACUS11 KWNS 012028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012028
TXZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0610
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

Areas affected...TX Big Bend into Southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012028Z - 012230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms possible. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A few unsuccessful attempts at deep convection have
occurred over the past hour across Brewster and Pecos counties in an
area where surface convergence has a local maximum. Given the
continued attempts, eventual convective initiation might be
realized. Airmass in the immediate vicinity of the towering cu is
quite dry but more favorable moisture and instability exists just
downstream. As a result, an isolated strong to severe storm is
possible during the next hour or two. Isolated nature of the severe
threat as well as the uncertainty on whether any deep convection
develops at all precludes higher watch probabilities. Additionally,
even if a storm does develop, it will likely be fairly short-lived
given the warm and dry mid-levels.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29520396 30100382 30940309 31160267 31390202 31050160
30500164 29550245 29020302 29190373 29520396



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