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ACUS11 KWNS 011956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011956
NEZ000-KSZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

Areas affected...Western and Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 011956Z - 012200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing. A WW will likely within
the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across far northern
Nebraska, in an environment characterized by extreme instability
(3500+ J/kg). While the 19Z LBF sounding indicates a cap remains in
place, agitated cumulus north of LBF suggests convective inhibition
is rapidly decreasing across central to northern Nebraska. The
extreme instability combined with over 35 kts of effective bulk
shear and modest low-level shear (0-1km SRH greater than 100 m2/s2)
suggest organized severe is likely. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail (including very large hail exceeding 2+ inches) appear to be
the main threats, though a tornado or two may also be possible given
the high levels of buoyancy in place.

A WW will likely be needed shortly.

..Squitieri/Cook/Guyer.. 06/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 42930113 42960062 42900003 42679786 42269736 41479693
40579714 40199766 39979825 39849880 39879907 39919972
40110027 40470093 40830136 41550136 42930113



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