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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0608

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 01, 2018 19:14:18
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 011914
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011913
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-012115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0608
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

    Areas affected...Much of North Dakota...western into central South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 011913Z - 012115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and become more
    widespread with time. One or two WW issuances will likely be needed
    later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is becoming increasingly agitated
    across western North Dakota/South Dakota, and a few thunderstorms
    have also initiated across northwestern North Dakota and vicinity.
    Convective trends should continue to increase across the region in
    response from an 1) approaching, mid-level shortwave trough over Montana/Wyoming, 2) weak convective inhibition, and 3) moderate to
    strongly unstable thermodynamic profiles (i.e., MUCAPE values
    ranging from around 1500 J/kg in central North Dakota to 4000+ J/kg
    in western South Dakota. Backed surface wind fields along and north
    of an east-west-oriented warm front was also contributing to
    enhanced low-level shear especially across North Dakota, and initial surface-based development in this area will likely have some tornado
    potential.

    With time the magnitude of forcing and rapidly weakening inhibition
    will result in widespread convective development, with mixed
    linear/cellular modes and upscale growth possible with eastward
    extent. All modes of severe are likely with this scenario,
    including tornadoes (especially across North Dakota) and very large
    (2"+ diameter) hail (areawide). Pending evolution of convective
    trends, one or more WWs will likely be issued before 21Z.

    ..Squitieri/Cook/Guyer.. 06/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

    LAT...LON 44910251 45900301 46730352 47220402 48110407 48630373
    48890311 48990264 49000171 48630079 48310007 47809977
    47299937 46709914 46259908 45859944 45369969 44740014
    43900040 43310049 43230082 43400138 44400206 44910251



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