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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0606

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 01, 2018 17:04:15
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 011704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011703
    MTZ000-WYZ000-011900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0606
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

    Areas affected...East central and southeast Montana...northeast
    Wyoming...far western South Dakota...far southwestern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 011703Z - 011900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are intensifying and increasing in coverage across
    the discussion area. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed early
    this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A 500 mb vort max across southern/eastern Idaho
    associated with a negatively tilted shortwave trough is currently
    propagating eastward, providing ascent across the discussion area.
    Currently, MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, resultant from 7-8 C/km
    mid-level lapse rates atop a moistening airmass, coincides with
    40-50kts of bulk effective shear and 0-3km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2
    across the region. As the shortwave trough and vort max continue to
    propagate eastward, more widespread coverage of storms may be
    possible later this afternoon. As convective inhibition rapidly
    erodes, convection is expected to become increasingly surface based,
    including transient supercells, multicell clusters, and perhaps
    bowing segments capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

    Convective trends are currently being monitored and a severe
    thunderstorm watch may be issued.

    ..Squitieri/Cook/Guyer.. 06/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 46970727 47480679 47860557 47710482 47140435 45970421
    45020417 44310445 43900541 43830664 44070754 44790775
    46970727



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