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ACUS11 KWNS 141506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141506
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast NE...Northern
IA...Southern and central MN

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 141506Z - 142100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow currently over southeast SD, northeast NE, and
northwest IA is spreading into portions of southern MN. The western
portion of the MCD area will continue to see blizzard conditions
into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...At 15Z, heavy snow is ongoing across portions of
northeast NE, southeast SD, northwest IA, and far southern MN, to
the north of a mature deep-layer cyclone moving gradually eastward
across the central Plains. Steep midlevel lapse rates (noted on the
14/12Z soundings from MPX and DVN) are supporting widespread
elevated convection across central/northern IA. As these convective
elements spread northward into a region of broader large-scale
ascent, snow rates will rapidly increase across portions of southern
into central MN, with one or more bands of 1-2"/hr expected later
this morning into this afternoon.

Meanwhile, very strong low-level flow (50+ kts at less than 1 km AGL
per FSD VWP) will continue to support the potential for blizzard
conditions, especially across portions of southeast SD, northeast
NE, northwest IA, and southwest MN, where low-level cold advection
will be strongest into early afternoon. Locally enhanced wind gusts
will also be possible near the stronger convective elements over
north-central IA into south-central MN, with gusts exceeding 50 kt
recently noted at a few reporting sites across this area.

Snow rates will likely begin to decrease across the southern and
western portion of the MCD area by early afternoon, though strong
winds and blowing snow will continue.

..Dean.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON 43119852 43839797 45039598 45209498 45359430 45339297
44819290 43829257 43179257 42359377 42129517 42099645
42419763 42679843 43119852



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ACUS11 KWNS 040133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040133
OKZ000-TXZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western/Central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36...

Valid 040133Z - 040300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for hail will persist for the next hour or so. A
downstream watch across western and central OK is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell currently moving into Tillman and
Kiowa Counties in southwest OK continues to produce large hail (i.e.
1.75" per a recent report in Jackson County). Downstream air mass is
less unstable, largely a result of cooler temperatures and less
low-level moisture, but the storm remains quite strong and
well-organized. the well-organized nature of this storm suggests it
will likely be able to persist within this less stable environment
for next hour or two while gradually decreasing in strength.

Farther northwest, increasing low to mid-level flow and resulting
warm-air advection has fostered the development of elevated
thunderstorms across the eastern TX Panhandle. The air mass here is
unstable enough to support updrafts strong enough to produce hail,
some of which may be above 1" in diameter. These storms will likely
persist for the next several hours as they move eastward into
western OK, aided by both a strengthening low-level jet and
large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave moving into the
region.

Currently, severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to be limited
after Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36 expires at 03Z and downstream
watch is not anticipated. However, convective trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier.. 04/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36260063 36530031 36829962 36759863 36249797 34999792
34339834 33839917 33869993 34090034 34820096 35710103
36260063



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