1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0605

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 01, 2018 07:41:45
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1527838912-1857-7999
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 010741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010741
    TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-010815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0605
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 AM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018

    Areas affected...parts of western and middle TN...northeast MS...and
    northern AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 010741Z - 010815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 40-45 mph and localized gusts around 50 mph
    may continue with a squall line as it moves southeast through
    west-central TN into northern portions of MS/AL. Pockets of minor
    tree damage are possible with this activity but the
    coverage/intensity will likely not necessitate a severe thunderstorm
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line from near Memphis east-northeastward to Nashville. Surface conditions ahead of the
    line are characterized by mid 70s degrees F temperatures and lower
    70s dewpoints. Modifying the 00Z BNA RAOB for these conditions
    yields around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE (probably higher than objective
    analysis would indicate). Precipitable water per the earlier
    sounding is around 2 inches and strongly suggests water-loading
    processes to be one of the primary mechanisms for stronger gusts.
    However, given the weak low-level lapse rates implied by the
    modified sounding, it seems only localized stronger gusts to around
    50 mph can be generally expected. Nonetheless, pockets of tree
    damage may occur, especially since soils have been pre-conditionally
    saturated by the remnants of Alberto.

    ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35158960 36118698 35648591 34788602 34478907 34688949
    35158960



    ------------=_1527838912-1857-7999
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1527838912-1857-7999--

    --- SBBSecho 3.04-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)