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ACUS11 KWNS 260153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260153
TXZ000-260300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 260153Z - 260300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts will continue to be a
threat with this storm as it continues into the TX Hill Country.

DISCUSSION...Discrete supercell continues to maraud southwestward
into the TX Hill Country. This storm has had a history of producing
very large hail (i.e. softball size around 0020Z near Brownwood) and
strong wind gusts (i.e. measured gust of 48 kt at BWD ASOS and
estimated 65 mph in town). Large amounts of small hail have also
been reported. Despite indications previously that the storm had
become outflow dominant, recent radar signatures of the storm
suggest it has once again developed a favorable inflow/outflow
structure. Also of note, a localized area of moisture convergence
may result in additional intensification with the resulting
enhancement of vertical vorticity contributing to a brief increase
in tornado potential.

In general, the onset of nocturnal cooling should result in the
downstream airmass becoming increasingly hostile to convection.
However, given the well-developed nature of the storm and the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the MAF and
DRT 00Z soundings), the storm will likely persist for the next 2-3
hours. Large hail is currently the primary severe threat but
anticipated linear transition will result in a greater potential for
strong wind gusts.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31179981 31559928 31749880 31599819 31269794 30879801
30349844 30209904 30289962 30639990 31179981



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ACUS11 KWNS 040713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040713
LAZ000-TXZ000-040815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...extreme southeast TX...southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 040713Z - 040815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Localized strong gusts are possible but the
coverage/intensity for severe/damaging gusts is uncertain. The
greatest risk for damaging gusts will accompany any
longer-lived/stronger mesovortices and surging bowing segments as
the squall line moves east into the lower Sabine Valley.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south squall line over
southeast TX extending into the western Gulf of Mexico. The airmass
downstream of this activity is moist/unstable with around 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE when modifying the 00z LCH raob. The KLCH VAD shows
relatively weak low-level winds beneath 35-40kt southwesterly 500mb
flow. Instrument measured gusts during the past 1-2 hours have
remained generally at or below 35kt, suggesting any risk for
damaging winds has been highly localized over southeast TX. The
expectation is the squall line will continue to move to the east
across the northwest Gulf Coast as a series of smaller-scale MCVs
associated with the squall line, move east towards the Sabine river
overnight.

In the near term, a persistent weak supercell will probably continue
to episodically intensify/weaken east of Lake Charles. Although a
brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out, the weak low-level flow will
tend to limit the tornado risk. However, a localized stronger gust
may accompany the area near the mesocyclone.

..Smith/Edwards.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 30479471 31309217 29559163 29659321 29549431 30479471



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