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ACUS11 KWNS 140936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140935
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...the northern half of Mississippi and adjacent parts
of southwest Tennessee and northwest Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

Valid 140935Z - 141130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for gusty/damaging winds and a brief tornado or
two continues across portions of Tornado Watch 46. The need for a future/downstream watch remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a slowly decaying band of
storms crossing the Mississippi River at this time. The strongest
remaining portion of the line extends from near the
Tennessee/Mississippi border southwest across the Delta region,
where the severe/brief tornado risk is the greatest.

Storms should remain largely contained within WW 46 through its
scheduled 11Z expiration. The need for a downstream watch remains
uncertain, though low-level moistening indicated ahead of the line
by surface obs over the past 1-2 hours may allow enough severe
threat to linger (given the adequately sheared environment) to
warrant new watch consideration.

..Goss.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33628780 32908845 32559042 32589118 34029061 34868965
35408927 35508820 34658740 33958754 33628780



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ACUS11 KWNS 310034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310033
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...central MS...northwest AL...middle TN and extreme south-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 310033Z - 310200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue weakening trend
from south-central KY into middle TN this evening. A marginal severe
threat may persist further south into central/northeast MS and
northwest AL for a couple more hours, but a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...After a brief uptick in convection across south-central
KY into middle TN over the last hour or two, convection has trended
toward weakening and a more disorganized state recently. Based on
the 00z RAOB from BNA, steep midlevel lapse rates are still present,
however, instability is meager with less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE
indicated. Effective shear around 54 kt and a fairly large, curved
low level hodograph gives some clues into the brief organization in
convection earlier. But, with loss of daytime heating and
increasingly poorer quality airmass with eastward extent, severe
threat is expected to quickly diminish across KY/TN.

Further south, convection has shown some upward trends in intensity
as cells track east/northeast into central and northeast MS.
Boundary layer moisture in better further south, with dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F resulting in MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg per JAN
00z RAOB. A weak capping inversion near 700mb was still evident in
this observation and is likely precluding more robust
intensification. Convection therefore will likely continue to
struggle in weaker forcing with southward extent. A marginal threat
of a strong wind gust or hail may persist for a couple of hours
across central/northeast MS into northwest AL as the cold front
continues to push eastward this evening.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/31/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32158914 32139016 32329063 32649053 33368980 34368876
35798702 36308640 36968566 36948537 36798522 36338526
35548579 34398659 33778712 33108770 32598828 32288882
32158914



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