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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0522

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 25, 2018 22:25:44
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252225
    TXZ000-260000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0522
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

    Areas affected...TX Big Country

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 252225Z - 260000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Very large hail is possible during the next hour or so
    before the primary severe threat transitions to strong wind gusts as
    the storm becomes more outflow dominant.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm initiated quickly across Palo Pinto
    county in area where surface convergence was maximized along the
    well-defined outflow from the decaying storm complex over
    east-central TX. Very warm surface temperatures and modest moisture
    beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures support moderate
    instability across the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE
    around 2000 J/kg. Instability decreases with western extent where
    deep boundary layer mixing has reduced surface dewpoints. Surface
    winds are fairly weak, generally easterly/southeasterly at 5 to 10
    kt, but these backed surface winds beneath moderate northwesterly
    flow aloft support 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 kt.

    Overall environment supports the potential for very large hail (i.e.
    greater than 2 inches), particularly given the discrete nature of
    the storm. Bunkers supercell motion suggests a due southward storm
    motion but the influence of the southwestward progressing outflow
    boundary will likely result in a more southwestward storm motion.
    Given the current strength of the storm's updraft and deeply mixed
    downstream environment, strong wind gusts are possible once the
    storm becomes outflow dominant.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32159939 32529916 32849855 32619777 31849790 31619905
    32159939



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 00:30:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 040030
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040029
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-040130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0522
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0729 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

    Areas affected...Central Maryland...Far southern Pennsylvania...far
    eastern West Virginia...and far northern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

    Valid 040029Z - 040130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is expected to wane through the
    evening. A downstream watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Convection in Berkeley County, West Virginia has
    intensified over the past 30 minutes. This uptick in storm intensity
    is likely attributed to slightly better low-level moisture in this
    vicinity with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. In addition,
    interaction with the outflow boundary/differential heating boundary
    which has been in place across this region is likely also assisting
    with storm intensification. Expect this trend to be short-lived due
    to the loss of daytime heating and a drier low-level airmass with
    eastward extent. In the meantime, 50 knots of effective shear per
    IAD sounding will continue to support rotating updrafts and
    mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km will support a hail threat. A
    lack of significant flow in the lowest 3 km and a relatively moist
    vertical profile suggest the threat of 58 mph or greater winds
    remains low. Severe thunderstorm watch 125 will likely be able to be
    canceled before 02Z as these storms should move out of the watch
    before that time.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39557815 39827758 40067694 39877594 39457593 39097614
    39007704 38917795 39097833 39387837 39557815



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