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ACUS11 KWNS 251951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251950
MEZ000-252145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251950Z - 252145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm are possible this afternoon with an
associated severe wind and hail risk. A WW is not likely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Storms have formed along a surface boundary in western
Quebec this afternoon and are quickly moving east into northern
Maine. While buoyancy remains limited -- MUCAPE is analyzed to be
around 500 J/kg -- strong flow aloft has contributed to 30-65 kts of
effective bulk shear per RAP analysis. Given the large shear values,
storm organization will be sufficient to present a severe wind and
hail threat. However, limited buoyancy and coverage of storms will
not necessitate a WW at this time.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 46936886 46766788 46366768 45806768 45606818 45686916
45816986 45977017 46267032 46747021 47076980 46936886



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ACUS11 KWNS 032259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032258
TXZ000-NMZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

Valid 032258Z - 040030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated storms that developed over western Texas will
remain capable of producing downburst winds and large hail next hour
or two. But the gradual weakening trend is expected to continue.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms including both multicells and a couple
of supercells persist over western Texas from near Lubbock to near
Fort Stockton. Storms are in an environment characterized by
moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak to modest
effective bulk shear (25-35 kt). These storms are mostly diurnally
driven, and should continue a gradual weakening trend as the
boundary layer stabilizes and convective inhibition increases.

..Dial.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 30390313 31700315 32860309 34250305 34490215 32070183
30510230 30390313



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