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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0519

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 25, 2018 19:42:44
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251942
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251941
    TXZ000-OKZ000-252215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0519
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

    Areas affected...Much of western Oklahoma into northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 251941Z - 252215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...At least a few severe storms capable of very large hail
    and damaging wind are expected to develop by 22-23Z.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a dying outflow boundary from
    northwest TX into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong heating continues
    on both sides of the boundary, and surface winds remained
    southeasterly and backed relative to areas to the west. Meanwhile, a
    weak surface low was located across northwest OK, with a low
    pressure trough generally extending southwestward into the South
    Plains.

    The outflow may have caused some degree of drying of the air mass
    emanating out of OK. However, GPS water vapor sensors indicate only
    a slight drop in overall moisture content on the cool side of the
    boundary, and, surface dewpoints continue to rise. Therefore, MLCAPE
    values of 2000-3000 J/kg appear reasonable given the very steep
    lapse rates aloft and strong heating.

    Although surface convergence will remain weak, it should be
    sufficient given the lack of CIN to initiate a few areas of severe
    storms. The most likely area for initiation would appear to extend
    from northwest OK into the eastern TX Panhandle. Northwest flow
    aloft atop light but veering winds with height should result in
    slow, southward-moving cells capable of very large hail and
    localized wind damage.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34990076 36140025 36670010 36699974 36489935 36079905
    35039889 34399881 34049865 33769845 33309800 32999788
    32619844 32599930 32690011 32900092 33260130 34010127
    34470107 34990076



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 03, 2019 22:27:46
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1556922469-1967-8029
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032227
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0519
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

    Areas affected...Central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

    Valid 032227Z - 032330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of strong storms are moving out of severe
    thunderstorm watch 125. These storms may pose an isolated large
    hail/damaging wind threat for the next 1 to 2 hours, but no
    downstream watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms in southern Pennsylvania and
    central Maryland have produced mostly sub-severe hail and wind over
    the last hour. Do not expect the severe threat to be much more than
    isolated from now on as these storms move into an increasingly
    stable environment in central PA and southeast PA. Therefore, no
    downstream watch is anticipated to cover the short-term isolated
    severe threat outside of severe thunderstorm watch 125.

    ..Bentley.. 05/03/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40257841 40617814 40777760 40857659 40347597 39827594
    39357660 38937743 38887801 39017837 39177860 39717866
    40257841



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