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ACUS11 KWNS 251936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251936
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...North-central and northwestern Nevada...extreme
southwestern Idaho...portions of southeastern Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251936Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe wind gust and isolated hail risk will exist with
the strongest storms in the discussion area. A WW is not anticipated
at this time.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating and the approach of a mid-level trough
have led to storm development in northwestern Nevada. With dewpoints
in the upper-40s to low-50s, MUCAPE values have risen to 1000-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk-shear values within the area are generally
25-30 kts. A risk for severe wind gusts as well as isolated hail
with the strongest storms will exist this afternoon. While initial
development will be semi-discrete, with time storms should congeal
into an MCS. The threats with these storms should preclude a WW
issuance.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR...

LAT...LON 42782010 43021938 43141791 42841659 42381627 41601624
40961644 40641776 40611837 41001907 41751989 42422010
42782010



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ACUS11 KWNS 032123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032123
TXZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...south central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 032123Z - 032230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms including a few supercells are expected to persist
much of the evening over south central Texas. Large hail and
damaging wind are the main threats. A WW will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Numerous storms continue developing in the weakly
capped and moderately to strongly unstable warm sector (2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE) across south central TX. Wind profiles with 40-45 kt
effective shear will support some organized structures including
supercells. Activity will likely persist through much of the
evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31160082 30359835 29369788 28619827 28179898 28199975
29220050 29900118 31160082



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