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ACUS11 KWNS 251800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251759
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Northeast Iowa...southwestern Wisconsin...west-central and central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251759Z - 252000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail and wind gusts will evolve this
afternoon as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. A WW will be
possible should convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts isolated convection
initiating beneath a cirrus deck along a weak differential heating
boundary aided by an approaching mid-level wave. Initial storms
should remain weak. However, trends in visible satellite imagery
indicate that the cirrus deck should depart from west to east as the
afternoon progresses. This should help destabilize the moist air
mass -- with dewpoints generally in the mid- to upper-60s -- and
yield MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg. Severe wind and hail will be
possible with the strongest storms. Some uncertainty exists with
regard to how quickly the cirrus will depart and destabilize the air
mass. Given the uncertainty, trends will be monitored for a possible
WW issuance later this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 44939170 45479053 45649000 45578944 45358875 44758838
44138885 43408971 42569078 42459133 42669224 43049279
43909274 44939170



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ACUS11 KWNS 032046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032045
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Fri May 03 2019

Areas affected...West Virginia...northern Virginia...western/central Maryland...and southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

Valid 032045Z - 032145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across remaining portions of
WW 125.

DISCUSSION...A risk for hail and damaging wind gusts continued with
a band of storms currently located west of EKN (Elkins, WV) in
central West Virginia. A few storms have also developed east of
this area near an east-west surface boundary across far northern
Virginia and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. The greatest
severe risk will exist with the ongoing, forward-propagating band
approaching EKN, which has a history of 1-1.5 inch hail and damaging
winds. Meanwhile, any updraft that can favorably interact with the aforementioned east-west boundary will become capable of all severe
hazards, including a brief tornado. Within the pre-convective
airmass, shear and instability remain favorable for damaging wind
gusts near organized activity. Meanwhile, a limited risk for
damaging wind and hail will exist with storms migrating eastward
from eastern Kentucky, but prior convective overturning and
associated low-level stabilization should limit the overall
magnitude of the threat across western portions WW 125.

..Cook.. 05/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39878045 40167987 40377863 40407768 40097720 39627714
39047722 38587757 38107892 37757983 37458053 37278121
37508152 38118136 39008103 39568068 39878045



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