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ACUS11 KWNS 190208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190208
KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-190315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...western Kansas...and far
southwestern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105...
Valid 190208Z - 190315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 105. Local spatial
extensions may be needed to include Kit Carson and Yuma Counties
soon.
DISCUSSION...Convection has evolved into a mixed mode of linear, forward-propagating segments and clusters of cells across the
discussion area. Strong to severe wind gusts have been reported
with the linear segments, while significant hail has been noted
especially with supercellular storms across northwestern Kansas.
Storms should continue to grow upscale into linear segments with
time, with large hail and damaging wind gusts remaining possible
given ample shear and moderately to strongly unstable thermodynamic
profiles - especially where storms can propagate into an undisturbed pre-convective airmass. An isolated tornado or two cannot be
completely ruled out - especially with storms interacting with a
surface warm front across the region.
Storms across eastern Colorado have exhibited a more linear
orientation and should result in a hail/wind threat as they enter
Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in Colorado. Spatial extensions of WW
105 should be considered in those areas.
Finally, a few areas of southwestern Kansas (near Dodge City and
Liberal) have experienced convective overturning and low-level
stabilization behind a forward-propagating linear segment entering
western portions of WW 106. While the severe threat has diminished
some in the near-term in these areas, some risk for redevelopment of
primarily elevated storms is possible for the next few hours as a
40-45 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet persists across that
area. Marginal hail appears to be the most likely threat in these
areas.
..Cook.. 05/19/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40280207 40360183 40300102 40050046 39820001 39349949
38709901 38149852 37609832 37249845 37109870 37049952
36960141 37030183 37390227 37960268 38390306 38670325
39250346 39780356 40100349 40280264 40280207
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