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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0455

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 18, 2018 23:28:10
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182328
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182327
    KSZ000-NEZ000-190030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0455
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0627 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

    Areas affected...Northwestern Kansas and adjacent far southwestern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 182327Z - 190030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is occurring across the discussion
    area and these trends should continue. Hail and damaging wind gusts
    are most likely, although a tornado or two may also occur.
    Convective trends are being monitored for either a WW issuance or
    local extensions of WW 105.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery continue to indicate an increasingly
    agitated cumulus field across much of west-central and northwestern
    Kansas, and a few thunderstorms have developed just north of a warm
    frontal zone near I-70. The environment supporting this activity is characterized by strong instability (2000+ J/kg MUCAPE) and
    sufficient deep shear (40-45 knots) for storm organization.
    Furthermore, backed surface winds along and north of the warm
    frontal zone are enhancing low-level shear, and will likely promote
    updraft rotation in storms that can mature while traversing this
    region. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
    primary threats, although a tornado threat will be present as well
    with any cellular convection that develops. A local extension of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105 may be needed in the near term, and a
    new tornado watch cannot completely be ruled out given convective
    trends.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 05/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39980197 40280162 40390099 40280027 39959982 39509963
    39079967 38890001 38880098 39080175 39510204 39980197



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 26, 2019 20:26:52
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 262026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262026
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0455
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

    Areas affected...southeast Virginia...DelMarVa...southeast
    Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

    Valid 262026Z - 262200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds are likely ahead of the cold front, with an
    isolated tornado possible within watch 105.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have become better consolidated along a strong
    cold front, from southeast PA across Chesapeake Bay. While cooler
    air had earlier been in place over the DelMarVa, recover is
    occurring, aided by heating. Therefore, it is likely the storms
    remain severe to the coast.

    Gradual destabilization has also occurred farther northern into PA
    near the warm front. Wind remain locally backed there, and a tornado
    or two is still possible either with cells ahead of the line or in
    QLCS fashion along the front.

    ..Jewell.. 04/26/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38707492 38097508 37587547 37197570 36817580 36627604
    36587652 36797672 37477635 38037611 38727608 39477611
    40147622 40617643 40927645 41167587 40957543 40407472
    39957444 39487441 39227447 39097463 38707492



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