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ACUS11 KWNS 182305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182304
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota...western Nebraska...and
far eastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182304Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat will continue as storms
evolve across the discussion area this evening. A WW issuance is
not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms continue to slowly
propagate across the discussion area at this time and are focused
mainly in a couple of areas - one cluster over far eastern Wyoming
and another cluster near a slow-moving front over west-central South
Dakota. Localized boundary interactions have resulted in a couple
of supercellular structures near/north of Rapid City despite
relatively weak kinematic profiles. Meanwhile, the cluster across
eastern Wyoming has shown a tendency for slow eastward propagation.
Despite weak shear profiles, moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE) and ~8 deg C/km mid-level lapse rates are supporting a large
hail risk in the strongest cells. Localized damaging wind gusts are
possible as well.

With time, models and observations both support continued
forward-propagation through the discussion area - especially if
storms congeal into linear segments as suggested by the most recent
HRRR runs. This threat should be too isolated/marginal to
necessitate a WW issuance, although convective trends will be
monitored.

..Cook/Hart.. 05/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44710430 44860366 44810246 44530200 44390203 43960199
42970231 42150260 41590302 41330340 41360388 41580422
42510449 43200458 44710430



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ACUS11 KWNS 261903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261902
NEZ000-WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-262130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Areas affected...Southern/East-Central WY...Far Northeast
UT...Northwest CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261902Z - 262130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts are possible over the region
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually increase across southern WY, northeast UT, northwest CO,
and far southeast ID over the next few hours as a shortwave trough
continues to move quickly eastward across the northern Rockies. The
resultant strengthening in the forcing for ascent related to this
progressive shortwave trough coupled with a modest growth in
instability will provide the impetus for higher thunderstorm
coverage and increase storm intensity. These strengthening and
fast-moving storms will increase the threat for damaging wind gusts
as they begin to interact with a steep low-level lapse rate
environment already in place across the region. Isolated nature of
these wind gusts is expected to keep watch potential low, but
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 40810566 40420900 40741161 41631229 42971078 43550605
43560492 43350447 42720403 41380399 40810566



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