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ACUS11 KWNS 152056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152056
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-152300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Minnesota...northern
Iowa...and western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 152056Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms could strengthen and eventually merge with
new convection into the evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley.
The primary threats are severe wind/hail.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing elevated convection continues across parts of
southern Minnesota/northern Iowa and over northern Wisconsin. The
cap remains in place around 800 mb, but surface heating ahead of the
storms has pushed temperatures into the upper 80s to mid 90s with
ample surface moisture present (upper 60s - low 70s surface
dewpoints). Surface heating could help break the cap and allow the
convection to become surface-based in the next couple of hours.
Additionally, there is a possibility the cap could erode from above
as rain-cooled air descends from the ongoing elevated convection.

The environment near/ahead of the ongoing storms is characterized by
strong buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and moderate-strong shear
(effective bulk shear of 30-45 knots; effective SRH 200+ m2/s2).
There is also an outflow boundary draped northwest to southeast
across western-southern Wisconsin, and storms should move
southeasterly along/near this surface feature. This boundary may
also locally enhance shear, which would increase storm intensity and
the probability for severe hail/wind. There is an isolated chance
for a tornado to develop along this boundary as well. There is still
some uncertainty regarding storm evolution over the next several
hours, which lowers the probability of issuing a watch at this time.

..Nauslar/Dean/Goss.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 44129397 44479317 45009236 45389179 45169083 44789037
43949023 43289050 43039104 43149221 43279331 43379406
43719418 44129397



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