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ACUS11 KWNS 151626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151626
WIZ000-MNZ000-151730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0743
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151626Z - 151730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may be capable of marginally severe hail into
this afternoon, but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop over parts
of Minnesota and adjacent northern Wisconsin this morning. These
cells are rooted above a stable layer (from the surface through
approximately 850 mb), driven by warm advection at the top of this
layer (evidenced by veering flow in regional VWP data). An
approaching MCV over west-central Minnesota is likely aiding
ascent/convective initiation as well. Although the 12Z MPX sounding
sampled steep mid-level lapse rates, disorganized flow aloft
suggests stronger updrafts should be transient, such that isolated
marginally severe hail will be the primary threat into this
afternoon. In turn, watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Picca/Goss.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 45529141 45529180 45619381 45699454 46029490 46239490
46649457 47109385 47129314 46959143 46749085 46379023
45659033 45529141



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