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ACUS11 KWNS 140710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140710
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-140915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Areas affected...southeast Arkansas and southeast Texas across
northern and central Louisiana and adjacent western Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46...

Valid 140710Z - 140915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and brief tornado risk continues across
Tornado Watches 45 and 46.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows and well-organized line of
storms extending from south central Arkansas south-southwest to
southeast Texas, moving east at 35 to 40 kt.

Latest RAOBs (06z) from JAN and particularly LIX indicate
instability sufficient to permit an eastward continuation of the
convective line over the next several hours, though storms from
roughly JAN northward will likely tend to be slightly elevated based
on the characteristics of the lowest 300 mb of the atmosphere
indicated by the sounding.

Still, with amply strong/veering flow through mid levels, expect
convection to remain organized, with locally gusty/damaging winds
possible with stronger/bowing segments. A few brief QLCS tornadoes
will also remain possible at times, in small/rotating areas near the
leading edge of the convective line -- particularly over the
Arklamiss area.

..Goss.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30269459 32229312 33709255 34889010 34948927 34718870
34148884 31389062 30379313 30269459



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ACUS11 KWNS 302052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302052
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Arkansas...western through northern Mississippi...and western through Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302052Z - 302215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will continue to gradually develop across the
discussion area over the next several hours, posing a threat for
hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. A WW issuance may
eventually be needed pending convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Although most of the pre-frontal warm sector has been
capped through the afternoon, recent radar/satellite indicates
localized breaches of the inversion associated with gradually
deepening convection near/north of Jackson, TN and also along the
cold front near Bradley/Drew counties in Arkansas. These trends
should continue through the remainder of the afternoon in response
to convergence along the front, continued surface
warming/destabilization, and the glancing influence of a shortwave
trough centered over Missouri. Strong deep shear (around 50 kts)
and weak surface-based instability (around 1000-1250 J/kg) will
support a gradually increasing risk of damaging wind gusts and hail
with convection that can deepen and mature along and ahead of the
front. Veered low-level flow will limit the overall tornado risk,
although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out -
especially where localized backing enhances SRH.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 35748699 34998812 33548971 32789090 32829178 33329172
34279092 35478972 36078899 36528792 36628691 36528653
36198646 35748699



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