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ACUS11 KWNS 150634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150633
MNZ000-NDZ000-150800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota through much of
northwestern/north central Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 179...

Valid 150633Z - 150800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 179 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue a general
weakening trends as it spreads across much of northwestern and north
central Minnesota through 3-5 AM CDT. A new severe weather watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Considerable weakening of the thunderstorm cluster now near/northwest through northeast of Grafton ND, into the Roseau MN
vicinity, appears well underway. Scattered strong cells do linger
to the southwest of Fargo, with this activity still likely supported
by inflow of seasonably moist boundary layer air.

In general, convection appears largely driven by ascent associated
with a fairly broad area of strong low-level warm advection, which
extends eastward across much of Minnesota. However, this is largely
beneath the nose of a broad plume of very warm elevated mixed layer
air, which probably is beginning to suppress convective development.
Weakening trends probably will continue into the 08-10Z time frame.
As 30-40 kt southwesterly deep layer mean flow advects convection
into and through much of northwestern/north central Minnesota,
activity will become increasingly displaced from inflow emanating
from a moist low-level environment over the Missouri Valley, above
cooler and more stable surface based air associated with a surface
high centered over the Great Lakes.

..Kerr.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48969358 47869328 46379720 46899860 47919880 48689833
49159615 49109470 48969358



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