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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0739

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 15, 2018 01:38:20
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150138
    ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0739
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0838 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    Areas affected...Far southeastern Missouri and far southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 150138Z - 150315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to
    persist for a few more hours with isolated large hail and damaging
    winds possible.

    DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms which has been persistent along
    the Mississippi River all day is moving into a more favorable
    thermodynamic airmass. This has led to additional storm development
    in Bollinger County, Missouri. Given these storms are moving towards
    an area with mid to upper 70s dewpoints and MUCAPE of 3000 to 4000
    J/kg, additional strong storms may develop in the next hour or two.
    The primary threat will be isolated large hail and damaging winds
    beneath the heaviest cores before they quickly dissipate due to weak
    effective shear. While diurnal cooling should bring this activity to
    an end, a very moist boundary layer will lead to slow cooling and
    may allow activity to persist a bit longer into the overnight hours
    than might otherwise be expected in a low shear, surface-based
    instability environment.

    ..Bentley/Weiss.. 06/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37589032 37718998 37738976 37718939 37448885 37068900
    36848906 36588914 36438939 36388978 36519023 36739050
    36949075 37319082 37589032



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