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ACUS11 KWNS 150054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150054
NDZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Areas affected...Northeast ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 150054Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to increase across northeast
North Dakota as supercells spread into the upper Red River Valley.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is expected to focus across
the upper Red River Valley region late this evening as LLJ
strengthens over the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Several
long-lived supercells continue along the international border region
which should propagate east of WW177 in the next 1-2 hours. Severe
threat will increase across northeastern ND as this activity
advances east. Tornado watch appears warranted downstream to account
for this scenario.

..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48959951 49009724 48069762 47869970 48959951



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