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ACUS11 KWNS 142228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142227
MNZ000-NDZ000-150000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018
Areas affected...Northeast ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142227Z - 150000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail threat will continue with convection over
northeast North Dakotas. Limited areal coverage will preclude a
severe thunderstorm watch over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Southern extent of long-lived convection has progressed
across northern ND and has exited Tornado Watch 177. This activity
is likely elevated in nature with warm advection the primary forcing
mechanism. MRMS hail algorithm continues to exhibit large hail with
a storm over Towner County. Current speed/movement suggests this
activity should propagate into Cavalier County and perhaps Pembina
County with time. With warm advection expected to focus along the
Canadian side of the international border there is insufficient area
to issue a watch at this time per collaboration with Grand Forks
WFO.
..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 48749951 49249775 48909715 48549768 48429906 48749951
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