• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0735

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 14, 2018 22:28:19
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142227
    MNZ000-NDZ000-150000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0735
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 142227Z - 150000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail threat will continue with convection over
    northeast North Dakotas. Limited areal coverage will preclude a
    severe thunderstorm watch over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Southern extent of long-lived convection has progressed
    across northern ND and has exited Tornado Watch 177. This activity
    is likely elevated in nature with warm advection the primary forcing
    mechanism. MRMS hail algorithm continues to exhibit large hail with
    a storm over Towner County. Current speed/movement suggests this
    activity should propagate into Cavalier County and perhaps Pembina
    County with time. With warm advection expected to focus along the
    Canadian side of the international border there is insufficient area
    to issue a watch at this time per collaboration with Grand Forks
    WFO.

    ..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48749951 49249775 48909715 48549768 48429906 48749951



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