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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0734

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 14, 2018 22:18:46
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 142218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142218
    ILZ000-MOZ000-142315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0734
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    Areas affected...East central Missouri and west central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 142218Z - 142315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Initial line of storms dropping south in eastern
    Missouri have become increasingly outflow dominant through time as
    they move further away from the stronger mid-level flow. These
    storms are moving into an airmass which has previously been
    overturned and has ongoing convection which will limit the severe
    threat in western Illinois and far eastern Missouri into the
    evening. The western edge of the outflow boundary will have the best opportunity for strong to severe storms into the evening as new
    storms form along boundary interactions where MUCAPE exceeds 3000
    J/kg. 0-6 km shear around 25 knots via LSX VWP suggests limits to
    updraft longevity will preclude a more organized severe threat, but
    the instability will support isolated large hail and damaging winds
    as updraft cores collapse.

    ..Bentley/Weiss.. 06/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38789176 38859141 38949102 39039061 39129006 39088983
    38948969 38688970 38428970 38138982 37769002 37569040
    37529081 37609137 37769186 37959219 38049256 38249283
    38579294 38899293 39089275 38859228 38789176



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