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ACUS11 KWNS 141954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141954
NDZ000-MTZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Areas affected...Northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 141954Z - 142130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to develop later this
afternoon/evening across western and northern North Dakota.
Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is currently moving across
southern British Columbia/Alberta generating some mid-level clouds
and elevated convection across Montana. A surface low is located in
eastern Montana near Glendive, a remnant outflow boundary is
oriented east-west across northeastern Montana and into northwestern
North Dakota, and a weak warm front is analyzed across northern
North Dakota. These features should help focus forcing for ascent
across portions of far western/northern North Dakota in the next few
hours. Surface heating and the outflow boundary/weak warm front
should destabilize the low-mid levels and break a robust cap located
at 800-700 mb, as sampled by the 19z BIS sounding. Increasing
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints mid to upper 60s and mean
mixing ratios of 11-14 g/kg), strong low-level shear/hodograph
curvature (effective bulk shear of 50-60 knots and effective SRH
upwards of 200 m2/s2), and strong buoyancy (forecast MLCAPE in
excess of 2500 J/kg) will support development of a few supercells in western/northern North Dakota, most likely along/near the US/Canada
border. The main threats for these storms will be very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. A strong tornado appears
possible near the US/Canada border in northern North Dakota around
23-03z. These storms should remain discrete for several hours before
merging downstream to form a late evening/overnight MCS.

..Nauslar/Gleason/Grams.. 06/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 47740409 48340410 49000398 49040161 49060056 49039923
48999883 48319868 47909897 47689965 47580160 47440267
47360397 47740409



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