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ACUS11 KWNS 082227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082227
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...far western Kansas...Western
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082227Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have initiated within a an elongated surface trough
from eastern Colorado southward into portions of central/eastern New
Mexico. Storm intensity should increase as storms encounter richer
boundary layer moisture to the east. Storms will pose a severe wind
gust and isolated hail threat this evening; however, anticipated
lack of storm organization precludes WW issuance at this time.
Convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms within the discussion area will continue to push
east this evening into better surface moisture with dewpoints in
mid-50s to low-60s. MLCAPE values have risen to 1500-2500 within
those regions. Given the relatively large surface dewpoint
depressions and steep low-level lapse rates, severe wind gust will
be the primary threat. However, RAP analysis indicates steep
mid-level lapse rates across the region that could support an
isolated instance of severe hail until cold pools congeal surge
outward. Effective deep-layer shear is marginal -- 20-30 kts -- in
areas of northeast Colorado and the OK/TX Panhandles. While some
strengthening and modest organization is expected, the overall
threat coverage appears to be too limited to warrant a WW at this
time. Convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36540140 35250165 33710316 33530439 33980484 35240469
36370430 37630343 38850309 39970312 40440371 40640293
40210229 39730183 38240152 36640137 36540140



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