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ACUS11 KWNS 082202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082202
SDZ000-NEZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

Areas affected...Southwest/south central South Dakota into north
central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 082202Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A continuing increase in thunderstorm coverage and
intensity seems likely through the 6-8 PM MDT time frame,
accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. An additional
severe weather watch probably will be issued within the next hour or
so.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorms initiating south of Philip SD
appear to be doing so within a zone of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, roughly centered near the central
Nebraska/South Dakota border area. This field is generally on the
northeastern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, and may provide the focus for increasing storm
development into the evening hours.

Thermodynamic profiles across the region are characterized by steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate to large CAPE, supportive of
intense updrafts, more than capable of producing severe hail, and
the potential for strong downbursts and surface cold pool
development. Deep layer mean flow is rather modest (southwesterly
on the order of 20 kt), but veering of winds with height appear to
be contributing to vertical shear at least marginally sufficient for
organizing convective development.

Into the the 00-02Z time frame, consolidating/upscale growing
convection with merging cold pools appears possible, which may
eventually evolve into an organized mesoscale convective system with
more widespread strong surface gusts. If/when this occurs, the
tendency should be for activity to propagate southeastward.

..Kerr/Hart.. 06/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44090246 44380136 43920011 43139913 42230008 42340151
42670267 42930299 43430296 44090246



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