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ACUS11 KWNS 140311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140311
ILZ000-MOZ000-140415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...south-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140311Z - 140415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...While a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the
severe risk will likely continue to diminish further this evening as
storms move east of the MS river.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS will continue to rapidly move
northeast across the middle MS Valley during the 03-06Z period.
However, as the squall line moves east of the instability axis
--currently aligned from central AR into east-central MO-- a
weakening in thunderstorm intensity is forecast. Nonetheless, lower
60s surface dewpoints have advected into south-central IL from Cape
Girardeau, MO to Belleville, IL. The strength of the low- to
mid-level flow and organized character of the squall line at least
lends a low risk for localized damaging gusts. However, given the
overall meager buoyancy and expected weakening of the squall line
with time and less supportive environment with eastward extent, a
new severe thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

..Smith/Guyer.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38468965 39079076 39629039 39608895 39028854 38518859
38468965



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ACUS11 KWNS 302045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302045
ALZ000-MSZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...MS...Western AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302045Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for thunderstorm development. A
conditional risk of hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will
exist with any sustained cells.

DISCUSSION...At 2030Z, convection is gradually deepening from
central/eastern MS into western AL. Widespread shallow convection
was noted across this area earlier in the day, with a temperature
inversion rooted around 700 mb limiting the depth of convective
elements. However, this inversion should slowly erode over time,
eventually allowing for at least isolated thunderstorm development
between 4 PM - 6 PM CDT, as the region is glanced by a well defined
midlevel shortwave passing to the north.

If any deep convection can become sustained, effective shear of
40-50 kts, long hodographs, and steep midlevel lapse rates above the
capping inversion will support the potential for rotating updrafts,
along with a corresponding threat of large hail, locally damaging
wind, and perhaps a tornado.

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the coverage and intensity of
prefrontal thunderstorm development across this region, but given
the conditional threat of a supercell or two, watch issuance is
possible within the next couple of hours. Later this evening,
additional thunderstorm development will be possible as the cold
front moves in, with some continued potential for hail and wind.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31509073 34468856 34588775 34168729 33338748 32658817
32248867 31968918 31598995 31509073



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