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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0671

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 08, 2018 18:06:49
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 081806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081806
    MNZ000-NDZ000-081930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0671
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Fri Jun 08 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 081806Z - 081930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
    tornado or two may exist this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...On the eastern edge of a mid-level impulse, modest
    large-scale ascent and weak surface confluence are focusing
    relatively shallow convection across eastern North Dakota early this
    afternoon. Although 700-500mb lapse rates are poor, ongoing surface heating/moistening is contributing to marginal MLCAPE (generally
    around 200-400 J/kg), and these values may rise to around 500-750
    J/kg over the next few hours. Development of a few multicells or
    even marginal supercell structures through late afternoon may yield
    a localized severe threat, characterized primarily by gusty winds
    given steepening low-level lapse rates. However, a brief tornado or
    two may also be possible, signaled by some clockwise hodograph
    curvature in the lowest 3 km in forecast soundings later this
    afternoon. Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to be
    short-lived and isolated, precluding watch issuance. Any severe
    threat should diminish by mid evening.

    ..Picca/Grams.. 06/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47489848 47859824 48329745 48279667 47499639 46799648
    46419685 46359794 46409875 46599900 47079881 47489848



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