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ACUS11 KWNS 291830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291830
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-291930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0942
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 291830Z - 291930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected across much of northeast
Wyoming this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are possible with these storms. A watch will likely be issued in the
next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have started to form along and to the
south of the Bighorn Mountains. Expect storm coverage to increase in
the next hour or two as ascent increases ahead of the potent
shortwave now entering western Wyoming. Daytime heating and
low-level moisture advection has destabilized much of eastern
Wyoming with MUCAPE now around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Continued heating
over the next hour or two may lead to even greater buoyancy ahead of
these storms. The RIW 18Z VWP shows 60 to 70 knots of flow around 6
km yielding around 60 knots of 0 to 6 km shear. This
instability/shear combination will provide an environment conducive
for several supercells with all hazards possible. In addition, a
relatively straight hodograph may support splitting supercells.
While low-level flow is weak (~10 knots via RAP forecast soundings
and the RIW VWP), significant low-level turning will support at
least a marginal tornado threat with supercells that can remain
discrete before the storms congeal into one or more linear segments.
As these storms grow upscale, the threat will likely evolve into a
greater damaging wind threat into South Dakota.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44990736 45060675 45050608 45030537 45020465 44940430
44630393 43660376 42960410 42630492 42150612 42090678
42380738 42920789 43790839 44340857 44990736



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