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ACUS11 KWNS 291700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291700
MEZ000-291930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0940
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291700Z - 291930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat will likely continue into early
to mid afternoon across central and northern Maine. Marginally
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible. Weather watch issuance
appears unlikely across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a post-frontal but
moist airmass in place across New England. Surface dewpoints are
generally in the mid 60s F across central and northern Maine where
the RAP is analyzing a pocket of instability with MLCAPE values in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The 12Z Caribou sounding had about 20
kt of 0-6 km shear indicating that the environment may support
marginally severe storms. As surface temperatures continue to warm
over the next few hours, the marginal severe threat will likely
continue. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with
multicells that intensify. However, a weather watch will probably
not be needed.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 47146782 47466824 47566875 47476921 47296950 46986969
46596987 45797048 45327051 45096992 45176893 45626813
46646758 47146782



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