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ACUS11 KWNS 140155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140154
MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-140300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...much of northeastern into central and southern
AR...northern LA...northeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 140154Z - 140300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes
will continue and extend beyond the 10pm CDT watch expiration time.
A combination of local watch extension-in-time and a new tornado
watch may be utilized.

DISCUSSION...A moist and moderately buoyant airmass resides ahead of
an elongated QLCS from east-central MO southwestward into the
Ark-La-Tex region and another convective line has developed over
east-central TX. Both convective lines are moving east and will
continue to yield a risk for locally damaging winds and an isolated
tornado is possible with any supercell or persistent/strong
mesovortex embedded within the squall line. Although low-level
shear is strongest over AR, the moist boundary layer co-located with
ample low-level shear farther south in northeast TX into LA, will
support a risk for a tornado or two as well. The watch decisions
will likely be forthcoming during the next hour.

..Smith.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 31559210 31689553 33409497 36439214 36488990 34209076
33929185 31559210



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ACUS11 KWNS 301854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301854
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-302100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...Western/central Kentucky...northwestern
Tennessee...and far southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301854Z - 302100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection has increased in the general vicinity of
Paducah, Kentucky over the past 15-30 minutes, with hail and gusty
winds possible as storms migrate east. Convective trends are being
monitored for any evolving wind threat, which may necessitate a WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in convection has been noted across portions
of far western Kentucky near the Ohio River over the past 15-30
minutes or so. This increase is likely tied to ascent and cooling
aloft associated with an upstream mid-level wave and associated jet
streak centered over Missouri. These storms are in an environment characterized by modest surface-based instability (500-750 J/kg) and
strong deep shear (50-65 kts) favoring continued organization. The
favorable wind fields and forcing may overcome relatively weak
instability and support damaging wind gusts - especially if storms
can grow upscale into linear segments as they propagate eastward. A brief/isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, although veering
low-level flow with time should mitigate this threat.

..Cook/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36668649 36018804 35888916 36018963 36228972 36628956
37278888 37648825 38068737 38478640 38568598 38498556
38228529 37898526 37548544 37218566 36668649



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