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ACUS11 KWNS 291141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291141
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-291345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0938
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Areas affected...Northern MN and northwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239...240...

Valid 291141Z - 291345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 239, 240
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat continues to exit WW 239 moving into
and through WW 240 this morning. Strong/damaging winds will persist
this morning from north-central into northeast Minnesota, with the
fast-moving line of storms expected to reach the western shore of
Lake Superior and portions of far northwest Wisconsin around 8:30-9
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Early morning trends in mosaic radar imagery showed the
leading extent of the fast-moving bow has shortened in length as it
advanced into north-central MN. This bow, which extended from
Koochiching to western Cass Counties MN, was moving to the east at
50-55 kt. Daybreak has allowed for the onset of diabatic
heating/rising surface temperatures. This combined with an increase
in surface dew points across northeast MN will favor further
destabilization through the morning, supporting a continued forward
propagation of the MCS toward Lake Superior and perhaps Upper MI.
Further support for a damaging wind threat to spread east this
morning across WW 240 exits, given the forecast of 50-60 kt
southwesterly 850-700-mb jets shifting across MN into the Upper
Great Lakes this morning into the afternoon.

Current radar trends suggest the central MN counties from Douglas to
Mille Lacs may remain too far south of the more active band of
storms, though trends will be monitored for any backbuilding of
activity into the veering low-level jet this morning.

..Peters.. 06/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 46709487 48189445 48689437 48559256 48279157 48209073
48018948 47498982 46748976 45978993 45639073 45629223
45669285 45889388 46179493 46709487



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