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ACUS11 KWNS 140142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140142
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...Southern through southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...

Valid 140142Z - 140245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat in Tornado Watch 43 should be confined
to an organizing, northeastward-moving band of storms over the next
several hours. West of this band, the severe threat has diminished substantially in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar mosaic/objective analyses indicate an
organizing, north-to-south oriented band of storms extending from Osage/Gasconade southward through Ozark/Powell Counties in Missouri
and on from there into Arkansas. These storms were in a strongly
sheared environment (effective SRH values approaching 500 m2/s2),
with instability values relatively weak but still supportive of
organized convection. Isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and
hail are likely in the strongest activity, with the tornado risk
maximized within LEWPs and bows within the complex and any
convection ahead of the line that can remain discrete.

West of this band of storms, convective overturning has stabilized
the airmass substantially. Isolated storms have redeveloped well
west of the region along the dryline in southeastern Kansas,
although these storms should struggle to affect western portions of
WW 43 with any impact exceeding severe levels. As such, affected
local offices may consider expiring the stabilized portions of WW 43
before scheduled expiration (06Z).

..Cook.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 38899172 38929123 38759062 38408995 37798951 37108954
36608966 36509014 36499105 36509200 36529247 36729284
37129304 37709308 38169299 38499256 38559229 38899172



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ACUS11 KWNS 300431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300430
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Parts of OK into far southeastern KS...southwestern
MO...and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 300430Z - 300700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may occur overnight as thunderstorms
increase in coverage and intensity. While not immediately likely,
severe thunderstorm watch issuance may be needed by 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...04Z surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low centered along
the KS/MO border near Pittsburg, KS. A cold front extends
southwestward from this low across central/western OK into the TX
Panhandle, while a warm front is located over parts of southwestern
MO. A shortwave trough over the central High Plains will shift
eastward overnight. At least scattered thunderstorms appear likely
to develop by 06-07Z (1-2 AM CDT) as large-scale ascent associated
with the shortwave trough overspreads much of OK and vicinity.

Initial convective development appears to be underway across the
eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK at 0420Z with cooling of
cloud tops noted on infrared satellite imagery. These thunderstorms
will likely remain elevated above a stable near-surface layer as
they move eastward across OK and eventually southwestern
MO/northwestern AR overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 C/km present on 00Z area soundings are supporting MUCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg across much of OK. Around 40-50 kt of effective bulk
shear in the cloud-bearing layer should initially support supercells
with an isolated large hail threat.

Convective mode becomes less clear with eastward extent across OK,
as storms may have a tendency to organize into one or more line
segments as they interact with the cold front. Gusty winds may also
occur, but downdrafts will probably struggle to reach the surface
given the strong low-level inversion. Convective trends will be
monitored over the next several hours for possible watch issuance.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34629951 34859985 35279994 36949645 37189543 37469415
37279334 36479335 36079357 35459445 35099541 34889619
34699701 34559808 34509881 34629951



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