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ACUS11 KWNS 140136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140136
ARZ000-140230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Areas affected...portions of southwest and central AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

Valid 140136Z - 140230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest risk for a tornado will seemingly focus from
Howard County northeast to the Hot Springs vicinity during the next
1-2 hours. A significant tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a maximum pressure fall
at Arkadelphia (1.5-2.0 mb per hour) within a tongue of rich
low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 68-70 degree F range.
Strong and strengthening low-level shear has been observed from the
LZK VAD (550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with observed storm motion). Another
favorable factor for tornado potential is the expectation for the
Sevier/Howard County supercell to remain quasi-discrete for at least
the next hour as the outflow from the QLCS from the west will
probably not negatively impact the storm inflow/updraft in the near
term.

..Smith.. 04/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33829399 33929419 34729337 34779317 34679294 33829399



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ACUS11 KWNS 291951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291951
COZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291951Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms capable of producing marginally severe
hail are possible in the next few hours, but the limited coverage,
intensity, and duration of the threat is expected to preclude a
Watch.

DISCUSSION...Eroding stratus clouds in the last few hours have
allowed temperatures to warm rapidly into the mid-to-upper 40s over
the area. A rapidly-approaching shortwave trough within a ribbon of
50-70 kt mid-level westerly flow, a relatively humid low-to-mid
troposphere, and very steep low-to-mid level lapse rates should
support the movement of a few thunderstorms off the high terrain in
the next few hours. The very cold temperatures aloft and the
potential for some storm rotation in the 50-60 kt of deep-layer
shear should support some hail production in these storms, with the
strongest, most persistent updrafts capable of marginally severe
hail. This threat, however, should diminish within a few hours as
the storms run into the stable surface layer farther east. Because
of the limited duration, intensity, and coverage of the threat, a
Watch is not anticipated.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 03/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39670527 39660484 39320413 39190394 38390344 37930336
37530354 37280397 37180460 37130483 37110514 37480517
38030535 38520562 39170571 39670527



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