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ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-230015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Western and South-central Kansas...Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles...Northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...199...200...

Valid 222214Z - 230015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 199,
200 continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
through much of the evening as a linear MCS develops and moves
southeastward across parts of the central and southern Plains.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a fast moving bowing
line segment across northwest Kansas with more discrete convection
located south-southwestward into far southeast Colorado and the
western Oklahoma Panhandle. Ahead of this activity, the RAP is
analyzing a pocket of moderate to strong instability across
southwest Kansas and the northern Texas Panhandle where MLCAPE
values are in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Surface analysis shows a
narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture from far northwest
Oklahoma northwestward into southwest Kansas, along which a sharp
gradient in instability exists. As the linear MCS continues to
organize over the next few hours, the strongest part of the MCS is
expected to move southeastward along the instability gradient where
wind damage will be likely. The cells have been moving southeastward
in the 40 to 45 kt range but an acceleration should take place as
the cells congeal into a nearly continuous line. The wind damage
threat will likely affect parts of central and southern Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma later this evening where additional weather watch
issuance is expected. An isolated tornado threat and large hail will
also be possible with the more dominant supercells within the MCS.

..Broyles/Grams.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38889946 39000104 38370216 37920302 37500333 37000314
36450254 35120071 35529839 36269766 37839777 38889946



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