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ACUS11 KWNS 221920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221919
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-222045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Northern North Carolina and Southern Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221919Z - 222045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms expected this afternoon with
isolated damaging winds as the primary threat. A tornado or two may
also occur along the front in southern Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Showers have developed this morning and into the early
afternoon along the spine of the Appalachians. Thus far, deeper
updrafts have struggled, but expect stronger storms to develop in
the next hour or two. Instability has increased across northern
North Carolina and southern Virginia, evident by the increasingly
agitated cumulus field. MLCAPE values are currently around 1000 to
1500 J/kg and are expected to increase to 1500 to 2000 J/kg by later
this afternoon as surface heating continues. In addition, surface to
6 km shear is currently around 35 knots per 19Z KFCX VWP and may
increase to further by later this afternoon as the mid-level speed
max in eastern Tennessee overspreads the area. This environment will
support of a combination of multicell and supercell structures. Weak
mid-level lapse rates (5.5 to 6 C/km) will limit overall hail
potential other than the strongest rotating updrafts. A somewhat
enhanced tornado threat exists in southern Virginia where a front
has stalled. Any storms which interact with this boundary may have
an increased tornado threat as they ingest a vorticity rich
low-level airmass.

While the overall threat may remain limited, convective trends will
be monitored for a potential watch if a greater threat materializes.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 36278191 36898118 37468035 37717970 37877930 37757814
37987742 37807676 37467640 37267633 37027632 36657640
36377705 35827809 35357949 35268022 35508176 35838208
36278191



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