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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0823

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 22, 2018 18:57:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221856
    NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-222030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0823
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the central/northern High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 221856Z - 222030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the
    afternoon, and some will pose a damaging wind and large hail threat.
    While a watch is not currently expected, convective trends will be
    monitored for an increase in organization, which could necessitate a
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...A severe thunderstorm has developed over the Black
    Hills this afternoon, and other cells are developing within
    confluence along a surface trough over the western Dakotas and
    Nebraska Panhandle. As mid-level ascent continues to foster new
    development within this steep lapse rate environment, storms should
    grow into multicell clusters, with some brief supercell structures
    possible. However, relatively disorganized mid/upper wind profiles
    should foster more cluster modes that are driven east by merging
    cold pools. Some threat for damaging winds and large hail will
    continue to evolve, but a lack of greater organization casts doubt
    on the need for a watch.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 41200388 41580401 43550436 45030447 45860458 46340452
    46640428 46720410 46860366 46560318 45280282 43490233
    41570180 41030197 41020304 41200388



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